The Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Grammys, and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

SAG Awards Commentary (Updated Nov. 26, 2024): It’s the week of Thanksgiving when the first batch of screeners gets watched by voters over the holiday weekend. So, where does it all stand?

Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” has dominated the headlines, while industry screenings and Q&As have been underway over the past week. Sony Pictures held a SAG NomCom screening with the cast of “Saturday Night” on Monday evening, and the sizeable, sprawling ensemble was the highlight. The highlight was bolstered by a passionate speech from cast member Robert Wuhl, who spoke about the importance of awards to an actor’s livelihood, generating roaring applause from the crowd. Those are the types of moments that can lead to recognition.

The same can be said for Netflix’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez,” which received a standing ovation for its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, at a SAG Q&A that I moderated. If the awards campaign stays the course, she could be on her way to making history.

The pre-Thanksgiving updates are below. The individual category pages won’t be updated until the weekend, but you can find the overall thoughts in this week’s Awards Circuit column.

On Monday, the Gotham Awards will have the first official say on the year in movies before the New York Film Critics Circle weighs in on Tuesday, followed by the National Board of Review on Wednesday. My official projections for each group are below. Remember, none of these groups are the endpoint for an awards contender (“The Lord of the Rings” films were all absent from NBR’s top 10 lists). It’s nearly impossible to gauge where anyone’s tastes will go. And yet, we predict anyway. Happy Thanksgiving.

Gotham Awards Predictions (Dec. 2)
Best Feature: “Anora”
Lead Performance: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
Supporting Performance: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Director: Sean Baker, “Anora”
International Feature: “All We Imagine as Light”
Documentary Feature: “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
Screenplay: “His Three Daughters”
Breakthrough Director: Alessandra Lacorazza, “In the Summers”
Breakthrough Performer: Ryan Destiny, “The Fire Inside”

New York Film Critics Circle Predictions (Dec. 3)
Best Film: “The Brutalist”
Director: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Actor: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Actress: Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl.”
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Nickel Boys”
Screenplay: “Anora”
Animated Film: “The Wild Robot”
Cinematography: “Nosferatu”
Non-Fiction Film: “No Other Land”
International Film: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
First Film: Annie Baker, “Janet Planet”

National Board of Review (Dec. 4)
Best Film: “Conclave”
Director: Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Actor: Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing.”
Actress: Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl.”
Supporting Actor: Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”
Supporting Actress: Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”
Original Screenplay: “Anora”
Adapted Screenplay: “The Room Next Door”
Animated Feature: “Inside Out 2”
Breakthrough Performance: Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Directorial Debut: Malcolm Washington, “The Piano Lesson”
International Film: “I’m Still Here”
Documentary: “Sugarcane”
Ensemble: “Saturday Night”
Cinematography: “Dune: Part Two”
Stunt Artistry: “The Fall Guy”

NBR Top 10 Films
“Challengers”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Inside Out 2”
“A Real Pain”
“Saturday Night”
“September 5”
“Sing Sing”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”

Top 10 Independent Films
“Anora”
“Between the Temples”
“The Brutalist”
“A Different Man”
“Ghostlight”
“Girls Will Be Girls”
“In the Summers”
“Janet Planet”
“Nickel Boys”
“The People’s Joker”

Top 5 International Films
“All We Imagine as Light”
“Armand”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Vermiglio”

Top 5 Documentaries
“Black Box Diaries”
“Daughters”
“Power”
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story”
“Will & Harper”